All posts by globalmacroresearch

The break-even point of the US shale oil industry and its production decline

The earning releases of the US shale oil firms have been published in May 2016, whilst the oil price is rebounding from its bottom. The following is the chart of the WTI crude oil futures:

2016-5-30-WTI-crude-oil-weekly-chart

Then, how are the financial situations of the US shale oil industry? Would the financial results justify the recent rebound?

Continue reading The break-even point of the US shale oil industry and its production decline

2016 1Q Japan’s GDP: the economy grew negatively due to the market turmoil

In the first quarter of 2016, Japan’s real GDP grew -0.05% (year-on-year), slowing down from 0.85% in the previous quarter. This is the first time since 2013 for Japan’s economy to grow negatively, excluding the four quarters after the consumption tax hike.

2016-1q-japan-real-gdp-growth Continue reading 2016 1Q Japan’s GDP: the economy grew negatively due to the market turmoil

George Soros buys gold and a gold miner, short sells S&P 500

The Form 13F for the first quarter of 2016 has been published, and the portfolios of hedge fund managers revealed.

In the disclosure, Mr George Soros’s Soros Fund Management appeared to have started positions in gold and a gold miner and also to have continued short selling of US stocks as he claimed in Davos in January 2016.

Continue reading George Soros buys gold and a gold miner, short sells S&P 500

2016 US REIT forecast: the Fed’s rate hikes, rate cuts and quantitative easing

Since the first rate hike in Dec 2015, the Fed has been in the course of normalizing interest rates. Although we as well as many of the famed hedge fund managers expect the central bank will eventually cease raising rates and resume easing, it is still reasonable to assume one or two rate hikes in 2016 are still possible.

Even if it happens, rate cuts will follow it anyway, but it is important for investors to consider how to trade on the temporary monetary tightening. As federal funds rates futures expect only one rate hike in 2016, two rate hikes will be a surprise if it happens.

Continue reading 2016 US REIT forecast: the Fed’s rate hikes, rate cuts and quantitative easing

2016 1Q US GDP: the slowdown continues, justifying the weak dollar

The GDP data of the US economy for the first quarter of 2016 is published, and the real GDP growth turned out to be 1.95% (year-on-year), slightly slowing down from 1.98% in the previous quarter.

2016-1q-us-real-gdp-growth

As the economic growth in mid 2015 was greater than 2%, the figure indicates the economy has decelerated after the Fed ceased quantitative easing.

Continue reading 2016 1Q US GDP: the slowdown continues, justifying the weak dollar

The oil prices rebound will not last: US shale industry still far from bankruptcy

The crude oil price is surging even after the disagreement in the oil producers’ meeting in Doha, but it will try its bottom again soon. The only thing that has changed in the oil market is the price, and the long-term oversupply of oils would not change as nobody is willing to cut their production.

2016-4-29-WTI-crude-oil-middle-term-chart

In the long-term chart, the oil price seems just trying to recover after a radical fall. Is this so-called a dead-cat bounce? We presume so and will explain the reasons.

Continue reading The oil prices rebound will not last: US shale industry still far from bankruptcy

Who was right about the US stocks in early 2016?: George Soros, Ray Dalio and Bill Gross

S&P 500 has recovered from the plunge in the beginning of 2016. Many famed hedge fund managers published their own view on the stock market, and who has been right so far? We would like to review the predictions by great investors such as George Soros, Ray Dalio and Bill Gross.

2016-4-20-s-and-p-500-chart

Continue reading Who was right about the US stocks in early 2016?: George Soros, Ray Dalio and Bill Gross

Short selling crude oils on the Doha meeting: an output freeze would not change oversupply

The oil price is surging as investors expect the oil producers’ meeting in Doha on 17th of April could stop the oversupply of oils, and so the WTI crude oil price is now trading in $40s. This could provide a very good opportunity for investors to short sell.

2016-4-13-WTI-crude-oil-chart Continue reading Short selling crude oils on the Doha meeting: an output freeze would not change oversupply

The US inflation forecast 2016: the graph edges higher, implying stagflation

In 2016, the Fed is trying to raise interest rates. The US economy is actually starting to decelerate, but the Core CPI (excluding food and enegies) is edging higher. If this uptrend is long-term, the Fed might be forced to rush for rate hikes undesirably.

Will that happen? Is the US economy going into stagnation? In this article we argue the outlook of inflation in the US and its influence on rate hikes, the stock markets and the gold price.

Continue reading The US inflation forecast 2016: the graph edges higher, implying stagflation

Explaining Japan’s deflation 2016: the cause is not just the consumption tax hike

Did Abenomics successfully save Japan from deflation? Not really. Will quantitative easing and negative interest rates by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) make it better in the future? Not very likely.

The BoJ is no longer controlling the monetary policy of the Japanese economy. The central bank has already taken all the effective options, and thus the room for expansion of easing is quite limited. There is something that decides the monetary policy instead of the central bank.

Continue reading Explaining Japan’s deflation 2016: the cause is not just the consumption tax hike