The US GDP data for the third quarter of 2016 is what investors, including us, have been waiting for, because it is much more relevant for future rate hikes than the job data, which the Fed claims to be caring about.
The job data has already been very strong for a long time, and thus if the Fed’s preoccupation is indeed the labour market, it must have already raised rates this year, which is not the case.
So the Fed, or at least Janet Yellen, is caring about the slowdown of the US GDP growth, and the new data showed that the slowdown is indeed ongoing, and rate hakes, if any, would put an end to the already weak growth.
Continue reading Fed rate hikes would seriously hurt the US economy, as 3Q GDP shows
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis published the GDP data for the second quarter of 2016, and the real GDP growth turned out to be 1.23% (year-on-year), slowing down from 1.57% in the previous quarter. The US economy has been significantly slowing down in 2016 as we predicted last year, when it was growing more than 2%.
However, the published data this time suggests more detailed interpretation is necessary to predict the upcoming future of the US economy.
Continue reading The dollar to fall as the GDP growth in 2Q radically weakens, secular stagnation looms
In the first quarter of 2016, Japan’s real GDP grew -0.05% (year-on-year), slowing down from 0.85% in the previous quarter. This is the first time since 2013 for Japan’s economy to grow negatively, excluding the four quarters after the consumption tax hike.
Continue reading 2016 1Q Japan’s GDP: the economy grew negatively due to the market turmoil
The GDP data of the US economy for the first quarter of 2016 is published, and the real GDP growth turned out to be 1.95% (year-on-year), slightly slowing down from 1.98% in the previous quarter.
As the economic growth in mid 2015 was greater than 2%, the figure indicates the economy has decelerated after the Fed ceased quantitative easing.
Continue reading 2016 1Q US GDP: the slowdown continues, justifying the weak dollar
Japan’s GDP data for the 4th quarter of 2015 was published, revealing that the real GDP grew 0.66% (year-on-year), slowing down from 1.65% for the previous quarter.
The chart obviously shows the consumption tax hike in Apr, 2014 ruined the uptrend after Abenomics. We will review the elements of the GDP, which indicate more about what is actually happening in the Japanese economy.
Continue reading 2015 4Q Japan’s real GDP growth: consumption dies due to tax hike, exports grow negatively due to strong yen
The US economy only grew 1.80% (year-on-year) in the 4th quarter of 2015, slowing down from 2.15% in the 3rd quarter, according to the real GDP data. Regarding its elements, the personal consumption, the fixed investment, the exports and the imports decelerated respectively.
As you see in the chart, the worst element is the exports. It is also notable that the personal consumption did not accelerate despite the radical decline in energy prices.
Continue reading 2015 4Q US GDP: the slowdown of the US economy becomes clearer, the exports sink due to the strong dollar
On the 16th of November, the Cabinet Office of Japan published the GDP data for the 3rd quarter of 2015. The real GDP grew 1.08% (year-on-year) during the quarter, revealing that the economy slightly recovered from the negative growth after the consumption tax hike in 2014.
To compare, the growth for the previous quarter was 1.00%. We look into the details of the numbers.
Continue reading 2015 3Q Japan’s real GDP growth: the QE works against the slowdown after consumption tax hike
On the 29th of October, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis published the US GDP data of the third quarter of 2015, revealing the US economy grew 2.03% (year-on-year). This means the economy slowed down from the second quarter, in which it grew 2.72%. The following is the chart of the US GDP growth and its elements:
From the graph we observe the investment is the one that slowed down the most. The strong imports are also a minus to the GDP growth, although it might imply the domestic demand is still alive. We look into each factor closely.
Continue reading 2015 3Q US GDP: The growth slows down, might hurt the strong dollar
As we have written, there is no large economy in the world that is growing rapidly. Reflecting the decreasing demands in the world, including the Chinese economy slowdown, the commodity markets completely collapsed, such as copper and iron ore.
However, it does not mean any single small country does not enjoy any significant growth. Thus, we review the world’s economy again to find out which area is the most profitable for investors to bet on.
Continue reading World’s GDP & stock market comparison: southern Europe finally starts to recover, Japan sinks
Japan’s real GDP for the second quarter of 2015 has been published, and the real GDP grew by 0.71% (year-on-year) during the quarter.
The details suggest the house holds are struggling due to the consumption tax hike in 2014, and this tendency could accelerate after another consumption tax hike in 2017. The growth of fixed investment implies industries are doing better because of the quantitative easing, although the exports slowed down despite the weak yen.
Continue reading 2015 2Q Japan’s GDP: Households struggle due to consumption tax hike, industries do better