{"id":1279,"date":"2015-07-16T00:18:29","date_gmt":"2015-07-15T15:18:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/?p=1279"},"modified":"2015-07-30T00:03:46","modified_gmt":"2015-07-29T15:03:46","slug":"%e3%82%b0%e3%83%ad%e3%83%bc%e3%82%b9%e6%a0%aa%e3%82%92%e3%83%95%e3%82%a1%e3%83%b3%e3%83%80%e3%83%a1%e3%83%b3%e3%82%bf%e3%83%ab%e3%82%ba%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e3%81%a7%e8%a9%95%e4%be%a1%e3%81%99%e3%82%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/archives\/1279","title":{"rendered":"\u30b0\u30ed\u30fc\u30b9\u682a\u3092\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c0\u30e1\u30f3\u30bf\u30eb\u30ba\u5206\u6790\u3067\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u672c\u7a3f\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30b0\u30ed\u30fc\u30b9\u682a\u3092\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c0\u30e1\u30f3\u30bf\u30eb\u30ba\u5206\u6790\u3067\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30b0\u30ed\u30fc\u30b9\u682a\u3068\u306f\u3001\u73fe\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u5229\u76ca\u304c\u51fa\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u306b\u3082\u304b\u304b\u308f\u3089\u305a\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u53ce\u76ca\u6027\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3055\u308c\u3066\u9ad8\u3044\u682a\u4fa1\u304c\u4ed8\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u9298\u67c4\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u3046\u3044\u3063\u305f\u9298\u67c4\u306fP\/E\uff08\u682a\u4fa1\u53ce\u76ca\u7387\uff09\u304c100\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u3066\u3044\u305f\u308a\u3068\u3001\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c0\u30e1\u30f3\u30bf\u30eb\u30ba\u3092\u7121\u8996\u3057\u305f\u682a\u4fa1\u304c\u4ed8\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u8a00\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u3044\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306f\u30b0\u30ed\u30fc\u30b9\u682a\u306e\u682a\u4fa1\u3082\u3001\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c0\u30e1\u30f3\u30bf\u30eb\u30ba\u5206\u6790\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u3044\u305f\u8a55\u4fa1\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u6c7a\u307e\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u672c\u7a3f\u3067\u306f\u3053\u308c\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3002 <!--more-->\u3067\u306f\u3001\u52d5\u753b\u914d\u4fe1\u30b5\u30fc\u30d3\u30b9\u3092\u5c55\u958b\u3059\u308bNetflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)\u3092\u4f8b\u306b\u53d6\u308d\u3046\u3002Netflix\u306e\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u682a\u4fa1\u3001\u4e00\u682a\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u58f2\u4e0a\u9ad8\u3001\u4e00\u682a\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u5229\u76ca\u3001\u5229\u76ca\u7387\u3001P\/S\uff08\u682a\u4fa1\u58f2\u4e0a\u9ad8\u500d\u7387\uff09\u3001P\/E\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u901a\u308a\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u682a\u4fa1: $100<\/li>\n<li>\u4e00\u682a\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u58f2\u4e0a\u9ad8: $12.8<\/li>\n<li>\u4e00\u682a\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u5229\u76ca: $0.55<\/li>\n<li>\u5229\u76ca\u7387: 4%<\/li>\n<li>P\/S: 7.75<\/li>\n<li>P\/E: 182<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>P\/E\u304c182\u3068\u3001\u3053\u306e\u6570\u5b57\u3060\u3051\u3092\u898b\u308c\u3070\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u5272\u9ad8\u306a\u9298\u67c4\u306b\u898b\u3048\u308b\u304c\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306f\u6b21\u306e2\u3064\u306e\u8981\u7d20\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u9ad8\u6210\u9577\u7387<\/li>\n<li>\u30b0\u30ed\u30fc\u30b9\u682a\u306f\u5229\u76ca\u3092\u72a0\u7272\u306b\u3057\u3066\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306b\u6295\u8cc7\u3092\u3059\u308b\u50be\u5411\u304c\u3042\u308b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3001\u5148\u305a3\u5e74\u5f8c\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u9ad8\u3092\u63a8\u6e2c\u3057\u3066\u307f\u305f\u3044\u3002 Netflix\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u9ad8\u306f\u3053\u3053\u306e\u3068\u3053\u308d\u5e74\u7387\u3067\u7d0425%\u306e\u4f38\u3073\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3053\u306e\u50be\u5411\u304c\u3042\u30683\u5e74\u7d9a\u304f\u3068\u5927\u96d1\u628a\u306b\u4eee\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3068\u30013\u5e74\u5f8c\u306e\u4e00\u682a\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u58f2\u4e0a\u9ad8\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4e00\u682a\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u58f2\u4e0a\u9ad8 = $12.8 * 1.25 * 1.25 * 1.25 = $25<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3067\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u6642\u5229\u76ca\u306f\u3069\u3046\u306a\u308b\u304b\uff1f\u3000\u73fe\u5728\u306eNetflix\u306e\u5229\u76ca\u7387\u306f4%\u3060\u304c\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306f\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u5727\u8feb\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u5206\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002Netflix\u306f\u58f2\u4e0a\u9ad8\u306e\u7d049%\u3092\u7814\u7a76\u958b\u767a\u8cbb\u306b\u7528\u3044\u308b\u50be\u5411\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3092\u5229\u76ca\u306b\u52a0\u3048\u308c\u3070\u3001\u5b9f\u8cea\u7684\u306a\u5229\u76ca\u7387\u306f13%\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3063\u3066\u30013\u5e74\u5f8c\u306e\u4e00\u682a\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u5229\u76ca\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4e00\u682a\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u5229\u76ca = $25 * 0.13 = $3.25<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3001\u682a\u4fa1\u304c\u3053\u306e\u307e\u307e$100\u3067\u63a8\u79fb\u3059\u308b\u5834\u5408\u3001P\/E\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u901a\u308a\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>P\/E = $100 \/ $3.25 = 30.76<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3084\u306f\u308a\u5c11\u3057\u5272\u9ad8\u3060\u3068\u306f\u601d\u3046\u304c\u3001\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u73fe\u5b9f\u7684\u306a\u6570\u5b57\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3002\u540c\u3058\u8a08\u7b97\u3092\u3082\u3046\u4e00\u5ea6\u7e70\u308a\u8fd4\u305b\u30706\u5e74\u5f8c\u306eP\/E\u304c\u7b97\u51fa\u3067\u304d\u308b\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6570\u5b57\u306f15.74\u3068\u306a\u308a\u3001\u3088\u3046\u3084\u304fS&amp;P 500\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3092\u4e0b\u56de\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001Netflix\u306f\u5e74\u738725%\u306e\u6210\u9577\u304c6\u5e74\u9593\u7d9a\u304f\u524d\u63d0\u3067\u8a55\u4fa1\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3092\u3069\u3046\u8003\u3048\u308b\u304b\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u52d5\u753b\u914d\u4fe1\u30b5\u30fc\u30d3\u30b9\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30bb\u30af\u30bf\u30fc\u81ea\u4f53\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6210\u9577\u7387\u3067\u4f38\u3073\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306f\u3042\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3002\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u306b\u30c6\u30ec\u30d3\u306b\u53d6\u3063\u3066\u4ee3\u308f\u308b\u696d\u754c\u306e\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u5e02\u5834\u898f\u6a21\u306f\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u5927\u304d\u3044\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057Netflix\u3068\u3044\u3046\u4f01\u696d\u5358\u4f53\u3067\u306f\u3069\u3046\u304b\uff1f\u3000\u5e83\u544a\u6226\u7565\u3084\u8ca1\u653f\u9762\u3067\u5931\u6557\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304b\uff1f\u3000\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u306f\u305d\u3046\u3044\u3046\u5074\u9762\u304b\u3089\u682a\u4fa1\u3092\u6279\u8a55\u3057\u3066\u3086\u304f\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3061\u306a\u307f\u306b\u3001\u901a\u5e38\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u306e\u60c5\u5831\u6e90\u3067\u306f\u4e00\u682a\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u58f2\u4e0a\u9ad8\u306f\u66f8\u3044\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001Reuters\u3084Google Finance\u3067\u8abf\u3079\u3089\u308c\u308bP\/S\uff08Price to Sales ratio\u3001\u682a\u4fa1\u58f2\u4e0a\u9ad8\u500d\u7387\uff09\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u8a08\u7b97\u5f0f\u3092\u4e00\u822c\u5316\u3057\u3066\u304a\u304f\u3002g\u306f\u5e74\u7387\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u9ad8\u6210\u9577\u7387\u3001m\u306f\u5229\u76ca\u7387\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>n\u5e74\u5f8c\u306eP\/E = { P\/S \/ (1+g)^n } \/ m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u5f0f\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u3001Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)\u3001Google (NASDAQ:GOOG)\u3001Alibaba (NYSE:BABA)\u3001Twitter (NYSE:TWTR)\u3001Facebook (NASDAQ:FB)\u306e3\u5e74\u5f8c\u306eP\/E\u3092\u6982\u7b97\u3057\u305f\u8868\u304c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/growth-stocks-future-pe-ratios.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1297\" src=\"http:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/growth-stocks-future-pe-ratios.png\" alt=\"growth-stocks-future-pe-ratios\" width=\"433\" height=\"194\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/growth-stocks-future-pe-ratios.png 433w, https:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/growth-stocks-future-pe-ratios-300x134.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 433px) 100vw, 433px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u30b0\u30ed\u30fc\u30b9\u682a\u306e\u306a\u304b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u6210\u9577\u304c\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u5b89\u6cf0\u306aNetflix\u3068Facebook\u304c\u8a55\u4fa1\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304b\u3002 \u8a08\u7b97\u30c4\u30fc\u30eb\u3092\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u304a\u304f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u9069\u5b9c\u5229\u7528\u3057\u3066\u307b\u3057\u3044\u3002\u6210\u9577\u7387\u3084\u5229\u76ca\u7387\u306f\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u6c7a\u7b97\u3084\u5c06\u6765\u6027\u3092\u8003\u3048\u3066\u5927\u307e\u304b\u306b\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8a08\u7b97\u30c4\u30fc\u30eb<\/strong><\/p>\n<form name=\"form_for_future_pe\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\nwindow.onload = function() {\n    document.getElementById('calculate_button').onclick = function() {\n        var n = parseFloat(document.form_for_future_pe.n.value);\n        var ps = parseFloat(document.form_for_future_pe.ps.value);\n        var g = parseFloat(document.form_for_future_pe.g.value) \/ 100;\n        var m = parseFloat(document.form_for_future_pe.m.value) \/ 100;\n        document.form_for_future_pe.result.value = Math.round (ps \/ Math.pow(1 + g, n) \/ m * 100) \/ 100;\n    }\n};\n<\/script><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4f55\u5e74\u5f8c\u304b: <input name=\"n\" size=\"5\" type=\"text\" \/>\u5e74<\/li>\n<li>P\/S: <input name=\"ps\" size=\"5\" type=\"text\" \/><\/li>\n<li>\u5e74\u9593\u6210\u9577\u7387: <input name=\"g\" size=\"5\" type=\"text\" \/>%<\/li>\n<li>\u60f3\u5b9a\u5229\u76ca\u7387: <input name=\"m\" size=\"5\" type=\"text\" \/>%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><input type=\"button\" value=\"\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\" id=\"calculate_button\"\/><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>\u8a08\u7b97\u7d50\u679c:<\/strong> n\u5e74\u5f8c\u306eP\/E:<input name=\"result\" size=\"5\" type=\"text\" \/><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<\/form>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u672c\u7a3f\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30b0\u30ed\u30fc\u30b9\u682a\u3092\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c0\u30e1\u30f3\u30bf\u30eb\u30ba\u5206\u6790\u3067\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b\u3002 \u30b0\u30ed\u30fc\u30b9\u682a\u3068\u306f\u3001\u73fe\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u5229\u76ca\u304c\u51fa\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u306b\u3082\u304b\u304b\u308f\u3089\u305a\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u53ce\u76ca\u6027\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3055\u308c\u3066\u9ad8\u3044\u682a\u4fa1\u304c\u4ed8\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u9298\u67c4\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002 \u3053\u3046\u3044\u3063\u305f\u9298\u67c4\u306fP\/E\uff08\u682a\u4fa1 &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/archives\/1279\" class=\"more-link\">\u7d9a\u304d\u3092\u8aad\u3080 <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u30b0\u30ed\u30fc\u30b9\u682a\u3092\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c0\u30e1\u30f3\u30bf\u30eb\u30ba\u5206\u6790\u3067\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[81,82],"class_list":["post-1279","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-trading-strategies","tag-netflix-nasdaq-nflx","tag-amazon-com-nasdaq-amzn"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1279","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1279"}],"version-history":[{"count":26,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1279\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1353,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1279\/revisions\/1353"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1279"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1279"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.globalmacroresearch.org\/jp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1279"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}