Category Archives: Commodity markets

Crude oil price forecast 2016: the high yield bond crisis and bankruptcies in the shale oil industry

The crude oil price has fallen radically and is finding a comfortable level to be. Is it going down further? We presume it has to be, though we also suppose it will rebound eventually.

Then, how much further is it going down? When is it going to rebound? We provide answers to these questions in this article. The following is the long-term chart of the WTI crude oil futures:

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The financial markets in 2016: the forecast for stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities

The easy market for investors supported by the Fed’s quantitative easing is already over, and now the question is merely when, not if, the asset bubble bursts in several markets. The assets in a bubble are stocks, bonds and the dollar.

The Fed has ended its QE programme and is now in a process of raising interest rates. Will the US stock market be okay? It can never be okay as the central bank has injected trillions of money and is now going to retrieve it, but the market is manifesting groundless optimism.

The greatest premise investors believe in is the strong US economy and thus the strong dollar. However, the time is near for the uptrend of the dollar to be fading out. Why, how, and when? We will explain it in this article.

Continue reading The financial markets in 2016: the forecast for stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities

The commodity market crash leads to worldwide deflation: gold, crude oil, natural gas, copper and iron ore

The commodity markets are tumbling. Gold, oils and almost all the other commodities are immensely depreciated. It may be seemingly explained by the Fed’s rate hike and the slowdown of the Chinese economy, but the two following factors can’t be explained by them:

  • ┬áThe prices are radically falling even in the currencies with the quantitative easing, such as the yen and the euro.
  • The prices have fallen to the range before the US started the QE after the financial crisis in 2008.

Although the Fed has surely stopped the QE, they haven neither sold the purchased bonds nor raised the interest rate. If, in addition, the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank stopped the QE, the commodity prices could tumble further, so that what has happened after the massive QE is the deflation. It would be very unreasonable, and so investors need to conceive a reasonable explanation for it.

Continue reading The commodity market crash leads to worldwide deflation: gold, crude oil, natural gas, copper and iron ore

When to buy gold in 2015/2016: Gold is a way to avoid the market crash in the near future

In early 2015, the gold price remained approximately $1150-1250, but as the Chinese economy slowed down, the price finally fell below $1100 in July.

As the Fed was going to rise the interest rate, the bear market itself was predicted by some investors. When the rate rises, the higher yield makes the dollar more attractive, and as a consequence, the gold price, traded in USD, decreases.

However, now we have another influential factor: the slowdown of the Chinese economy, which became more serious than before. So in this article, we contemplate on the two factors that affect the gold price and explain why gold is still a way to avoid the upcoming market crash in a few years.

Continue reading When to buy gold in 2015/2016: Gold is a way to avoid the market crash in the near future