Tax cuts, investment, the strong dollar and the twin deficits. For economists, Reaganomics is a very unique economic experiment. Looking at the GDP and the stock market in 1980s, it seems that Reaganomics was successful, but it is not well understood what exactly drove the economy. This article aims to explain why Reaganomics failed in the first few years and led to the later success, and what the cause was.
After Donald Trump won the presidential election 2016, the financial markets have reacted very dynamically, but investors also do not seem very determined about what the political shift would mean to the global markets.
Yet they would not be to blame, especially when even the world’s greatest hedge fund managers have diversified, different views. Some foresee rapid growth, whilst others still remain cautious. We introduce both in this article.
Donald Trump won the presidential election in 2016. Then the next question is: what does it mean to the financial markets? As Mr Trump plans to increase the federal debt to invest in infrastructure, the markets now expect high interest rates worldwide, but if you look at President Trump’s policies more carefully, you might assume something different could take place: rate cuts and QE.
The US GDP data for the third quarter of 2016 is what investors, including us, have been waiting for, because it is much more relevant for future rate hikes than the job data, which the Fed claims to be caring about.
The job data has already been very strong for a long time, and thus if the Fed’s preoccupation is indeed the labour market, it must have already raised rates this year, which is not the case.
So the Fed, or at least Janet Yellen, is caring about the slowdown of the US GDP growth, and the new data showed that the slowdown is indeed ongoing, and rate hakes, if any, would put an end to the already weak growth.
Although the US labour market has already been very tight for a long time, the Fed has been hesitating to raise interest rates.
The Fed insists that its policy depends on the labour market, supposing that the strong job data leads to high inflation, but despite almost full employment in the US economy, there has been no rate hike since the first rate hike in December 2015. The reason is obvious: the Fed is not seeing the job data but seeing something else.