The crude oil price is surging even after the disagreement in the oil producers’ meeting in Doha, but it will try its bottom again soon. The only thing that has changed in the oil market is the price, and the long-term oversupply of oils would not change as nobody is willing to cut their production.
In the long-term chart, the oil price seems just trying to recover after a radical fall. Is this so-called a dead-cat bounce? We presume so and will explain the reasons.
Continue reading The oil prices rebound will not last: US shale industry still far from bankruptcy
S&P 500 has recovered from the plunge in the beginning of 2016. Many famed hedge fund managers published their own view on the stock market, and who has been right so far? We would like to review the predictions by great investors such as George Soros, Ray Dalio and Bill Gross.
Continue reading Who was right about the US stocks in early 2016?: George Soros, Ray Dalio and Bill Gross
The oil price is surging as investors expect the oil producers’ meeting in Doha on 17th of April could stop the oversupply of oils, and so the WTI crude oil price is now trading in $40s. This could provide a very good opportunity for investors to short sell.
Continue reading Short selling crude oils on the Doha meeting: an output freeze would not change oversupply
In 2016, the Fed is trying to raise interest rates. The US economy is actually starting to decelerate, but the Core CPI (excluding food and enegies) is edging higher. If this uptrend is long-term, the Fed might be forced to rush for rate hikes undesirably.
Will that happen? Is the US economy going into stagnation? In this article we argue the outlook of inflation in the US and its influence on rate hikes, the stock markets and the gold price.
Continue reading The US inflation forecast 2016: the graph edges higher, implying stagflation
Did Abenomics successfully save Japan from deflation? Not really. Will quantitative easing and negative interest rates by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) make it better in the future? Not very likely.
The BoJ is no longer controlling the monetary policy of the Japanese economy. The central bank has already taken all the effective options, and thus the room for expansion of easing is quite limited. There is something that decides the monetary policy instead of the central bank.
Continue reading Explaining Japan’s deflation 2016: the cause is not just the consumption tax hike
The dollar will fall, and the yen will strengthen in 2016. The Fed could not continue to raise rates, and the strong yen will be back again as the Bank of Japan’s monetary expansion is now limited.
There might be a number of investors who still bet on the yen’s fall due to Abenomics, but we recommend to reconsider. We even recommend to buy the currencies under quantitative easing, such as the yen or the euro. Here are the reasons.
Continue reading USD/JPY forecast in 2016: the BoJ’s expansion and the Fed’s rate hikes will both decelerate